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| tripscan_top [2025/12/23 15:52] – 64.31.20.24 | tripscan_top [2025/12/23 17:29] (current) – 64.31.20.24 |
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| As Russia has tried to substitute some imports from the West, it has expanded manufacturing of textiles, footwear, food products and basic electronics, noted Ekaterina Kurbangaleeva, a visiting scholar at George Washington University, specializing in political and social research, including Russian taxpayer data. Some types of workers saw their wages triple and in some cases quintuple between 2021, the year before Russia launched its war, and 2024, her research has found. | The government has largely avoided the kinds of protests seen during the wars in Chechnya and Afghanistan, when the families of conscripted soldiers from Russia’s and the Soviet Union’s poorer regions demanded an end to the conflicts. |
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| “It was like a shot of adrenaline,” Kurbangaleeva said of the wartime boost to the economy, though she noted the slowdown in economic growth since then. | “I don’t think the regions would exercise any influence over sustaining the war, but the fact that you’re not seeing sort of outbursts of public protest – it relieves the pressure on Putin when he makes his decisions about what he’s going to do next,” Connolly said. |
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| Some of Russia’s more deprived, rural areas have also experienced an economic uplift since the start of the war, in part because of huge pay checks going to Russian soldiers and their families – a strategy the Kremlin has used to recruit volunteer soldiers and avoid wider conscription as it seeks to replace those lost on the frontlines in Ukraine. | |
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| “Russian soldiers today are paid more than any Russian soldier in the history of Russian soldiers,” RUSI’s Connolly said. “They have been earning more money than they ever would have hoped to have earned if they’d have stayed in those relatively depressed parts of the country and got another job in the civilian economy.” | What the Kremlin may be cognizant of, experts say, is concerns about a large group of war veterans re-entering society – without jobs and many with expensive medical needs – if a peace agreement is reached. |
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| The Russian government has also disbursed large compensation payments to the families of soldiers killed or injured in the war, Kurbangaleeva noted. | “It’s in Putin’s best interest to keep this war going, just from a domestic standpoint,” said Kimberly Donovan, the director of the Economic Statecraft Initiative at the Atlantic Council. |
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| In part by throwing money at the military workforce and their families, the Kremlin has managed to temper discontent despite Russian casualties in Ukraine nearing 1 million people, with 250,000 of those dead, according to a CSIS estimate published in June. | Sanctions evasion is costly |
| | While the economic headwinds are manageable in the short term, the long term could be a different story. Russia has dipped heavily into its sovereign wealth fund, which a recent Atlantic Council report said creates “new trade-offs for the Kremlin,” as the cushion that once insulated the general public from the war’s costs shrinks. |
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| | According to the Kyiv School of Economics Institute, the value of assets that are liquid, or easily converted into cash, in Russia’s National Welfare Fund has declined by 57% since the start of the war. |
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| | As the fund is drained, “it is difficult to imagine a scenario in which the Russian government can sustain its current defense expenditures without social spending cuts that are pervasive and visible to the general population,” the Atlantic Council report said. |
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